Friday, October 25, 2013


1. Update. Both DRB-Hicom and Konsortium Logistik are suspended this morning for whole day on Friday 25-Oct-2013. Note that DRB-Hicom last price is RM2.46 and Konsortium is RM1.51.
2. Takeover soon? Looking at the coincidence that the two are suspended on the same day, it is possible that DRB-Hicom could be taking over Konsortium Logistik.
3. Related to Budget 2014? Surprisingly, today is also the budget day. Given that DRB-Hicom is somehow Government linked, we may see this deal is somehow related to Budget 2014. I could not find the reasons at this juncture, but it could be another petrol price increase.... But to sooth things out, bus ticket prices to be reduced? Anyway, this is still too preliminary, wait for the Budget to see what happen.

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

HARN LEN worth RM1.80?

1.    The price that it sold its land is already RM1.00 per share. On 27-Sep-2013, Harn Len Corporation (HARNLEN) sold its 2410 ha of land in Sabah for RM184.6m cash to Boustead. If you look at the share base of 185.5m, the cash of RM184.6m translated into about RM1.00 per share. Since this Company still owns 12,200 ha of plantation land in other states, its share price is unjustifiably trade near RM1.00.
2.     Will HARNLEN sell its other plantation estates? HARNLEN has suffered consecutive 3 quarter of net losses due to low CPO prices, so it may make economic sense that the owner may want to sell its estates to another Company to realize its investment.
3.       HARNLEN is worth RM1.80 if the estates were to be sold. Assuming a very low land valuation of RM25,000 per ha for the remaining 12,200 ha of its land, this share is easily worth RM1.80. The 12,200 ha of land is already at deep discount of 65% to the Sabah estate price (due to the low FFB yield) in this calculation. This means its 12,200 ha land worth RM305m or RM1.60 per share. But of course we need to take care of its net debt of RM148m or RM0.80 per share.
4.    Conclusion: Land sold at cash (RM1.00) + Remaining estates (RM1.60) – Net Debt (RM0.80) = RM1.80 per share.
5.     Short term will be volatile, but the value should emerge soon. Investors sentiment may be clouded by US Government Shutdown Concern, but value investors know the trick to buy when the market is in fear. Grab this opportunity before too late.