Thursday, June 28, 2012

Felda Global IPO: How high can it go?

Felda Global IPO (Stock code: FGV, 5222) will be listed today, so much has been written about it, so let's get straight to the point... how high can it go?

Let's look at 3 possible scenarios:
1. If market follow analyst Target Price, it range from RM5.44 to RM5.65. However, this price range looks like a bit too stretched at 15x - 16x Forward PE as Sime Darby (closest comparison) only trades at max 14x Forward PE.
2. Will it follow Facebook fate in 1st day IPO? Some news start to compare FGV (2nd largest IPO this year) with Facebook (largest IPO globally this year). But the reality is Facebook gained only 0.6% to US$38.23 on its 1st day of listing (IPO Price: US$38). If FGV really follow Facebook fate, it should up by only 0.6% to RM4.58.
3. The stock code is 5222, means it will jump to RM5.22? This looks more like feng shui talk, but 5.22 sounds more reasonable price, making its Forward PE closer to Sime Darby Forward PE.

Scenario 1 and 3 looks more likely, means base case RM5.22, more optimistic case RM5.44 to RM5.65. Wish to make an early congratulations to those who got some of the shares before IPO. If you want to get in after listed, quite hard to get at reasonable price...

Monday, June 11, 2012

Crest Builder Target Price RM1.49 (Kenanga Initiate Coverage)

1. We initiate coverage on Crest Builder Holdings (CBH) with an OUTPERFORM call and a TP of RM1.49, which provides a total return of 48%.
2. The TP valuation is at a 10% discount to our FD SoP of RM1.67, inclusive of 55% discount on property.
3. CBH is at its inflection point, with rerating catalysts as it moves from its traditional construction business into the property development scene via its Prasarana-awarded redevelopment project of the
Dang Wangi LRT station worth a GDV RM1.0b.
4. This is the first major award from Prasarana’s ‘rail-plus-property’ projects involving a total 40-50 available MRT/LRT station sites.
5. We like CBH for its ability to secure such a catalytic project and expect more to come, which will ultimately propel the company to greater heights as it rides on the ETP play.
6. We expect a 3-year (up to FY14E) CAGR in earnings of 31%.

Source: Kenanga

Friday, May 11, 2012

KLK plunged 28% or RM6.50 to RM17.00???

In a split second at a trade recorded about 3pm, KLK plunged 28% or RM6.50 to RM17.00.
In only about 1 minute, the price recovered to above RM22 again.


This is likely to be a key in error.
You can see this very rarely... so what should you do?
Key in BUY call everyday at about 20% lower than market price... hopefully one of the day you can get this kind of trade.

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Yeo Hiap Seng 1Q12 Result Review

1. Net profit increased by 7% to RM8.17m. Accordingly, EPS up by  to 7% to 5.35 sen.
2. Book Value increased by 7 sen to RM1.80 per share.
3. Although Malaysia business 1Q12 PBT improved by 17% YoY to RM11.75m, Indonesia suffered loss before tax of RM1.26m (vs. RM0.18m PBT in 1Q11).
4. Loss in Indonesia is caused by higher advertising costs and forex losses.
5. YHS closed at RM2.88 yesterday or 17.6x historical PE and 1.6x Price-To-Book.

Monday, April 23, 2012

UMW upgraded to BUY with TP of RM8.35 at Maybank

Quoted from Maybank report:

1. Upgrade to Buy with a higher TP of MYR8.35, ahead of recoveries at
the automotive and O&G sectors, and on the back of a 10-11% rise in
2012-13 net profit forecasts. The disruption to the regional auto supply chain has abated while its O&G segment is at the cusp of a revival.

2. With market already absorbing the anticipated weak 1Q12 earnings
and its 2011 kitchen-sinking exercise, UMW now offers a recovery play
angle with modest growth (3-year EPS CAGR of 20%) and
undemanding valuations, supported by a decent dividend yield (6%).

3. We have raised our forecasts for Toyota vehicle
sales by 2-9% in 2012-13 to reflect an improved sales order outlook,
fuelled by its interesting launches ahead.

4. Net earnings lifted by 10-11% in 2012-13, incorporating the higher
profits from auto (+5-11%) and O&G (loss in 2011) divisions. We now
expect UMW to register a higher net profit of MYR723m in 2012 and
MYR812m in 2013.

Friday, April 20, 2012

TOWER REIT 1Q12 Result Review

1. 1Q2012 net income increased by 17% to RM9.93m. Accordingly, EPS up by 17% to 3.54 sen per share.

2. The better result was attributed to higher average occupancy rate of Menara HLA as a result of new tenancies and renewal of existing tenancies.

3. At yesterday closing price of RM1.42 and FY11 total dividend of 10.85 sen, historical dividend yield is 7.6%.

4. Conclusion: not a very sexy stock, but worth to keep for long run to enjoy the dividend yield.

Thursday, April 19, 2012

Am Research Maintain BUY on TA ANN

1. We maintain BUY on Ta Ann Holdings Bhd, with a higher fair value of RM7.86/share (vs. RM7.60/share previously), based on a PE of 13x pegged to a raised FY12F EPS of 60.5
sen (vs. 58.5 sen previously).

2. We now expect Ta Ann’s oil palm division to fetch profit after tax of RM154mil (+26% YoY) and RM188mil (+22% YoY) for FY12F and FY13F, respectively.

3. We expect FFB production to grow by 24% and 16% annually to 570,000 tonnes and 663,000 tonnes for FY12F and FY13F, respectively. We expect the oil palm division to account for over 80% of earnings for FY12F and FY13F vs. about 77% in FY11.

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Chin Teck Plantation 1Q2012

1. 1Q12 net profit down 5.3% YoY to RM15.3m.
2. CPO prices from Sep11-Nov11 averaged at RM2990 or YoY increase of about 2%.
3. Why Chin Teck net profit down 5.3% then? According to the Company announcement, other income is lower this quarter due to forex loss incurred (vs. forex gain in 1Q11) and absence of replanting incentives from MPOB this quarter.
4. Dividend of 16 sen (less 25% tax) was announced, representing 96% dividend payout from its 1Q11 EPS of 16.74 sen. However, this is 11% lower than last year dividend of 18sen.
5. Closing price of RM8.75 yesterday represents historical PE of 10.5x and historical gross dividend yield of 5.5%.