Friday, March 4, 2011

SPSETIA vs SPSETIA-WB

There's a warrant for SPSETIA which is convertable to its mother share anytime, that's SPSETIA-WB.
Some background information as of 335pm:

Market Price: RM1.48
Mother Price: RM6.11
Conversion Price: RM4.48

Looking at the market price, there's an arbitrage opportunity by using this strategy:
BUY WB @ RM1.48, pay RM4.48 to convert to mother share... Cash Out = RM5.96
Then SELL it at market @ RM6.11, Cash In = RM6.11
Profit = RM6.11-RM5.96 = RM0.15

BUT more detailed analysis shows some explanations on why the market is not executing this strategy:

1. Time Lag:
There's time to execute this strategy, to complete the forms, submit it, then wait, then queue to sell the mother share at open market. Probably takes 1 week to 1 month to execute this strategy. If the mother share falls, this strategy does not work anymore...

2. Share dilution
SPSETIA has 1020.35m shares outstanding and WB 160.25m shares. Assuming full conversion of the warrant, EPS will be diluted. Again let's assume market is efficient enough to price SPSETIA lower due to the dilution, meaning the new value (if all warrant convert) = RM6.11*1020.35/(1020.35+160.25) = 6234.39/1180.6 = RM5.28. Compared with cash out put of RM5.96, there no more arbitrage opportunity...

Conclusion:
At the 1st hindsight, looks like there is arbitrage opportunity. But with closer look, the market is smart enough...

1 comment:

  1. Dilution is not a problem. Even before the warrants of any share are listing, most analyts already start reporting the diluted EPS and PE ratio.

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