What is your greatest external concern for 2011?
- Collapse of the US dollar
- Euro debt spirals out of control
- Korean conflict escalates
- Oil spikes beyond US$100 per barrel
(Source: The Edge Malaysia)
My view:
Collapse of USD = unlikely (I rank this 4th out of the 4 choices)
Major economy still trade using US$ and used US$ as reserve. Besides, most commodity is priced in US$ as well. Although the amount of US$ in the market have increased substantially (due to US printing money and Quantitative Easing), the market have just not yet gave up on US$. China Yuan may need another 10 years before being accepted as a replacement to US$.
Euro debts spiral out of control = possible (I rank this 2nd out of the 4 choices)
First, it's Greece, then the market worry that the sovereign debt crisis may spread to PIIGS or "Portugal, Ireland, Italy,Greece & Spain". The market concern proved to be correct when it was Ireland turn to be bailed out in end-Nov (close to be 85 billion euros). Which country will be the next one? Not sure... but the "% of Deficit to GDP" are not showing positive signs. Quoting from Bloomberg report: "At 14.3 percent of gross domestic product, Ireland had the euro region’s largest deficit last year (i.e. 2009). Greece’s was 13.6 percent, Spain’s was 11.2 percent and Portugal’s 9.4 percent." Full report .
Korean conflict escalates = unlikely (I rank this 3rd out of the 4 choices)
According to a Korean Professor, Jung-hoon Lee, professor of international relations at Yonsei University: “North Korea's interest is not war; North Korea's interest is regime survival.” Full Report.
North Korea intentions may be just anything, but not war. Why I say so? Because if they are serious to start a war, there should be already another follow up attack in the past 10 days. Will South Korea fight back? Unlikely, Seoul is only 31 miles from North Korea. And South Korea economy is the 15th in the world, worth US$832.5 million! It is simply too expensive to fight back (for South Korea)...
Oil spikes beyond US$100 per barrel = most likely (I rank this 1st out of the 4 choices)
On 7-Dec-2010, oil price hit US$90 before retreated to around US$88 recently. The latest development on oil price was "OPEC Dismisses $90 Oil Price as `Blip,' Maintains Production Targets Again" from Bloomberg. Full Report
I beg to differ from OPEC though as the cash in the global market has to go somewhere, and commodity (including oil) seems to be the more attractive asset to invest in to hedge against inflation.
What does the reader think? (Source: The Edge Malaysia)
all wrong. the critical factor is china asset bubble and affected the whole world. of couse affected mini malaysia
ReplyDeleteChina asset bubble is also related to US printing $ from QE2, which also related to increase in oil price. We live in a global world nowadays, so I do agree with you that China is experiencing asset bubble (their latest inflation at 5.1%), but that doesn't mean that oil wont increase to US$100...
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