Grumpy Old Man Syndrome
1 year ago
This blog is related to observations regarding stocks traded in Malaysia. Disclaimer: The company analysis that appear in this blog is merely facts gathered from different sources and the author's personal view. It is not a buy or sell recommendation. The author do not guarantee the accuracy of the facts being presented. Please consult your investment advisors before acting on any information provided by the analysis above.
News
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REDtone has entered into an
agreement to divest a 21% stake in its subsidiary, Redtone Network S/B (“RN”)
to D.Y.M.M. Sultan Ibrahim of Johor for a total cash consideration of RM315k,
bringing the latter’s stake to 51%. The divestment is expected to be
completed by 15 June 2013.
§ RN,
Puncak Semangat and i-Media had been shortlisted by MCMC for the digital
terrestrial television broadcast (“DTTB”) infrastructure contract in November
2012.
§ REDtone said
that the DTTB business would involve continuous investments and a full
management commitment and added that the Johor sultan had graciously agreed
to invest in the DTTB business should the contract be awarded to RN.
§ Meanwhile,
in a separate press release, REDtone said was working with Huawei, Media
Broadcast GmbH (“MBG”) and PwC in its DTTB bid and is expected to submit a
detailed business plan on June 3 for the second tender process. Huawei will be
its Technology partner and system integrator while MBG of Europe will design
the network and complete the operational requirement for the DTTB
project.
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Comments
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§ The whole
DTTB is likely to cost RM1.0b of which RM300m is to supply set-top boxes based
on earlier press report. The strong shareholders in RN will no doubt enhance
the competitiveness of its DTTB bid. The group believes that the MCMC is
likely to announce the final evaluation result by end-3Q.
§ We
understand that the final evaluation will only see one winner selected to
roll out the DTTB services to the public in early 2014. A full nationwide
coverage is targeted to be reached by end-2015.
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Outlook
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§ REDtone’s
near term catalysts will be mainly led by its RM82.5m USP project as well as the
synergies arising from its recent NSA agreement with Maxis.
§ The
group’s future earnings are likely to depend on: 1) its ability to secure
more USP projects and 2) the degree of aggressiveness of Maxis’ 4G LTE
services rollout, which we have yet to impute into our forecasts.
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Forecast
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§ There
are no changes in our FY13-FY14 earnings forecasts.
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Rating
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Maintain
OUTPERFORM
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Valuation
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§ We have
raised our target price to RM0.75 (from RM0.56 previously) after rolling over
the valuation base year to FY14 with a higher targeted PER of 14.5x (+0.5 SD).
We believe the recent positive corporate developments within the group will likely
lead to a PER band expansion where we previously valued the company based on a
2-year average PER of 11.0x.
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Risks
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§ Dependency
on a major partner – Maxis.
§ Failure
to secure more USP programmes.
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