Grumpy Old Man Syndrome
3 years ago
Monday, January 31, 2011
Happy Chinese New Year 2011
May the readers of this website enjoy a prosperous and great year ahead and blessed with good health.
5 Things To Know Before KLCI Opening Bell
1. DJIA lost 166.13 points last Friday to 11823.70 as fear over Egypt put an end to the market's 8-week win streak (This is NEGATIVE to KLCI)
2.BN won Tenang by-election with an increased majority of 3,707 votes... better than 2,492-vote majority won during the 2008 general election. (This is POSITIVE to KLCI as investors may see this as an increasing support for BN and put higher expectation of General Election to happen this year)
3. Bank Negara Malaysia maintained interest rate at 2.75% last Friday. However, BNM warned that it will have to manage the rising amount of money building up in the domestic financial system. (This is NEUTRAL as investors have generally expected BNM to do so)
4. The latest update on Egypt unrest = i) it is already 6th day of the demonstration, ii) as many as 150 people have been killed in the unrest, iii) despite Mubarak’s appointment of the first vice president since his rise to power in 198, the demonstration goes on, iv) Suleiman has met with the interior and defense ministers to discuss a plan to restore security... for full latest story please read Egpty Update as of 640am
5. Feb-2011 Futures KLCI is now trading at 1496 points, about 26 points discount to the cash market close of 1521.89 last Friday. (NEGATIVE)
Overall = NEGATIVE but I think 1500 support should be able to hold.
2.BN won Tenang by-election with an increased majority of 3,707 votes... better than 2,492-vote majority won during the 2008 general election. (This is POSITIVE to KLCI as investors may see this as an increasing support for BN and put higher expectation of General Election to happen this year)
3. Bank Negara Malaysia maintained interest rate at 2.75% last Friday. However, BNM warned that it will have to manage the rising amount of money building up in the domestic financial system. (This is NEUTRAL as investors have generally expected BNM to do so)
4. The latest update on Egypt unrest = i) it is already 6th day of the demonstration, ii) as many as 150 people have been killed in the unrest, iii) despite Mubarak’s appointment of the first vice president since his rise to power in 198, the demonstration goes on, iv) Suleiman has met with the interior and defense ministers to discuss a plan to restore security... for full latest story please read Egpty Update as of 640am
5. Feb-2011 Futures KLCI is now trading at 1496 points, about 26 points discount to the cash market close of 1521.89 last Friday. (NEGATIVE)
Overall = NEGATIVE but I think 1500 support should be able to hold.
Friday, January 28, 2011
KLCI to breach 1600 by 16-March-2011? Pre-CNY sell down is OVER?
This blog will be short as the pictures will tell the story...
This is 2010 KLCI:
And this is 2011, will history repeat itself?
This is 2010 KLCI:
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Similar V-shape pattern in KLCI today vs DJIA 1000 points dip?
This is the graph for today KLCI as of afternoon close...
AND ... this is the graph for DJIA on 6-May-2010 (the day when it drop 1000 points at one time)
Yes, it's the deep V-shape recovery...
AND ... this is the graph for DJIA on 6-May-2010 (the day when it drop 1000 points at one time)
Yes, it's the deep V-shape recovery...
CI Holding 2Q2011 Result
1. Let's compare CI HOLDGINDS result against the average analyst expectation for FY2010:
Net income: Average analyst expectation FY2011 = RM42.83m, 1H2011 net income = RM23.05m
Earnings per share or EPS: Average analyst expectation FY2011 = 30.3 sen, 1H2011 EPS = 16.23sen
Overall, the 1H2011 Result is better than analyst expectation with 1H2011 net income already making 53.8% of consensus estimate
2. 2Q2010 net income of RM11.28m is an increase of 43% y-o-y but a 4% decrease qoq. In the announcement to Bursa, CIHLDG mentioned that "The higher profit after tax was mainly attributed to further economies of scale and prudent cost management"
3. Average analyst target price: RM4.81 as of time of writing, range of targetp price Range RM4.65 to RM4.90
4. Interim dividend of 5 sen less income tax of 25% was announced, ex-date = 16-Feb-2011
5. CI HOLDING BHD is trading at forward PER ending Dec 11of 10.89x, which is lower than F&N 16.63x.
My view: Overall, the 2Q2011 result is better than the market expectation. With RSI at 36.4 (almost Oversold), the time should have come for this share to move upwards.
Net income: Average analyst expectation FY2011 = RM42.83m, 1H2011 net income = RM23.05m
Earnings per share or EPS: Average analyst expectation FY2011 = 30.3 sen, 1H2011 EPS = 16.23sen
Overall, the 1H2011 Result is better than analyst expectation with 1H2011 net income already making 53.8% of consensus estimate
2. 2Q2010 net income of RM11.28m is an increase of 43% y-o-y but a 4% decrease qoq. In the announcement to Bursa, CIHLDG mentioned that "The higher profit after tax was mainly attributed to further economies of scale and prudent cost management"
3. Average analyst target price: RM4.81 as of time of writing, range of targetp price Range RM4.65 to RM4.90
4. Interim dividend of 5 sen less income tax of 25% was announced, ex-date = 16-Feb-2011
5. CI HOLDING BHD is trading at forward PER ending Dec 11of 10.89x, which is lower than F&N 16.63x.
My view: Overall, the 2Q2011 result is better than the market expectation. With RSI at 36.4 (almost Oversold), the time should have come for this share to move upwards.
Feb-2011 futures drop 44.5 points!!! Algo Trading or Key In Error?
Feb-2011 futures drop 44.5 points at one time this morning to 1477.5 points. The huge drop may have caused by:
i) Algorithm trading rules set by futures player in which orders to SHORT are executed when the index broke below certain support level
ii) Key in error in which the futures dealers key in the customer order to short wrongly
Today's V-shape recovery of index may have been caused by this as well.
At 9.16am, Feb-2011 Futures plunged 44.5points to 1477.5, KLCI was around 1515 to 1519.
At 9.19am, Feb-2011 Futures recovered to 1500, KLCI plunged to lowest point of 1505.36 points
Conclusion:
Feb-2011 plunge seems to have lead to huge sell off for index linked stock this morning.
i) Algorithm trading rules set by futures player in which orders to SHORT are executed when the index broke below certain support level
ii) Key in error in which the futures dealers key in the customer order to short wrongly
Today's V-shape recovery of index may have been caused by this as well.
At 9.16am, Feb-2011 Futures plunged 44.5points to 1477.5, KLCI was around 1515 to 1519.
At 9.19am, Feb-2011 Futures recovered to 1500, KLCI plunged to lowest point of 1505.36 points
Conclusion:
Feb-2011 plunge seems to have lead to huge sell off for index linked stock this morning.
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
PUBLIC BANK FY2010 RESULT
1. Let's compare PUBLIC BANK result against the average analyst expectation for FY2010:
Net income: Average analyst expectation = RM2962m, Real = RM3048m
Earnings per share or EPS: Average analyst expectation = 89.4 sen, Real = 87.18sen
Overall, the FY2010 Result is within analyst expectation with net income 2.9% better than expected but EPS 2.5% lower than expected.
2. Comparing FY2010 against FY2009 shows that revenue improved 13.6% while net income increased 21.1%. In the Press Release gathered from Bursa, Public Bank's Chairman stated that the improved financial performance was mainly driven by the strong growth in net interest and finance income and higher non-interest income, coupled with lower loan impairment allowances.
3. Average analyst target price: RM13.86 as of time of writing
4. 2nd interim dividend of 33 sen was announced, ex-date = 10-Feb-2011
5. My view: Overall, the result is within market expectation. However, investors may assign some upside to PBBANK due to the 33 sen gross dividend announced. Or at least the 33 sen dividend will serve as a good share price support for the stock.
Net income: Average analyst expectation = RM2962m, Real = RM3048m
Earnings per share or EPS: Average analyst expectation = 89.4 sen, Real = 87.18sen
Overall, the FY2010 Result is within analyst expectation with net income 2.9% better than expected but EPS 2.5% lower than expected.
2. Comparing FY2010 against FY2009 shows that revenue improved 13.6% while net income increased 21.1%. In the Press Release gathered from Bursa, Public Bank's Chairman stated that the improved financial performance was mainly driven by the strong growth in net interest and finance income and higher non-interest income, coupled with lower loan impairment allowances.
3. Average analyst target price: RM13.86 as of time of writing
4. 2nd interim dividend of 33 sen was announced, ex-date = 10-Feb-2011
5. My view: Overall, the result is within market expectation. However, investors may assign some upside to PBBANK due to the 33 sen gross dividend announced. Or at least the 33 sen dividend will serve as a good share price support for the stock.
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